A joint naval exercise conducted last week by China and Indonesia east of Taiwan has stirred debate among regional analysts about whether other Southeast Asian nations might be willing to pursue similar military cooperation with Beijing, according to SCMP China.
The drill, held last Wednesday, marked a notable step in defense ties between the two countries and came just two days before Indonesian and Chinese foreign and defense ministers convened for high-level talks. According to SCMP China, that Friday meeting covered an expansive agenda, ranging from further military cooperation to food security, underscoring how the relationship between Jakarta and Beijing has broadened well beyond commercial and infrastructure investment in recent years.
Observers cited by SCMP China suggested the exercise could have ripple effects across the region, with one analyst noting it may "lower the political threshold" for other Southeast Asian countries considering their own joint military activities with China. That framing points to a broader dynamic long at play in the region, where governments have generally sought to balance economic dependence on China against wariness over Beijing's assertiveness in the South China Sea and its growing military footprint.
Indonesia has traditionally positioned itself as a non-aligned power within Southeast Asia, wary of being drawn too closely into either Washington's or Beijing's orbit. Jakarta has also had its own friction points with China, particularly over overlapping maritime claims near the Natuna Islands. That history makes the decision to hold a joint naval drill with the People's Liberation Army notable, and it may explain why regional watchers are parsing the move for signs of a broader strategic shift.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's remarks following the ministerial meeting, referenced in the SCMP China report, framed Indonesia's cooperation with Beijing in favorable terms, a characterization likely intended to encourage other capitals in the region to view similar engagement as low-risk and mutually beneficial. Such messaging fits a pattern in Chinese diplomacy, where high-profile cooperation with one regional partner is often used to normalize deeper engagement with others watching from the sidelines.
The location of the exercise, east of Taiwan, adds a layer of geopolitical sensitivity. Military activity in waters near Taiwan inevitably draws scrutiny given the island's status as a flashpoint in China-U.S. relations and the broader question of Beijing's long-term ambitions toward reunification. A joint drill in that vicinity, even one framed as routine naval cooperation, is likely to be read by Washington and other regional capitals as a signal of China's expanding ability to conduct coordinated operations with partner militaries near contested waters.
For other Association of Southeast Asian Nations members, the calculus around following Indonesia's lead is far from straightforward. Countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam, both of which have unresolved maritime disputes with China in the South China Sea, would face a very different set of political and domestic considerations than Indonesia does. Any move toward joint military exercises with Beijing in those countries would likely trigger far greater public and opposition scrutiny given the more direct and contentious nature of their territorial disagreements with China.
By contrast, nations with fewer direct maritime disputes with Beijing, such as Malaysia, Thailand, or Cambodia, may find it comparatively easier to consider expanded defense cooperation with China, particularly if Indonesia's experience is perceived domestically and internationally as low-cost and diplomatically manageable. Cambodia in particular has already maintained closer defense ties with China in recent years, including through infrastructure development at the Ream naval base, making it a plausible candidate for further coordination.
The inclusion of food security on the agenda of Friday's ministerial talks, as noted by SCMP China, also signals that Beijing is pursuing a multidimensional relationship with Jakarta that extends beyond military symbolism. Linking defense cooperation with economic and resource security discussions may be part of a broader Chinese strategy to embed itself across multiple sectors of partner economies, making security cooperation feel like one strand of a much larger, mutually beneficial relationship rather than an isolated or provocative step.
Washington and its allies will likely watch closely to see whether Indonesia's example translates into concrete follow-on exercises involving other Southeast Asian states. The United States has its own extensive network of military exercises and partnerships across the region, and any perceived momentum toward Chinese-led joint drills could prompt renewed diplomatic outreach from American officials seeking to reassure regional partners and counterbalance Beijing's overtures.
Ultimately, whether Indonesia's joint drill becomes a template or remains an isolated case will likely depend on how the exercise is perceived domestically within Indonesia itself, as well as how China chooses to publicize and leverage it in follow-up diplomacy with other ASEAN capitals. As SCMP China's reporting suggests, the coming months of diplomatic engagement between China and Southeast Asian nations may offer clearer signals of whether this represents the start of a broader regional trend or simply a one-off arrangement rooted in the specific and long-standing dynamics of the China-Indonesia relationship.
